I am indebted to Jenny Holland of the Association for Conservation of Energy for pointing out (via a tweet) the curious case of the disappearing carbon savings from Green Deal. Remember that Green Deal doesn’t have targets as such : this was established a long time ago (here). But speaking as late as yesterday (no-one can say that this blog is not topical…) Climate Change Minister and chief Green Deal promoter Greg Barker, when asked at DECC select committee what he thought would be a measure of success for the Green Deal, cited ‘reducing carbon emissions’ as one of the main ones. And quite right, of course.
However, something odd is going on with the scribes below DECC, so to speak. Last year they added a new line in the annual ‘updated energy and emissions projections,’ relating to domestic ECO and Green Deal. This was the first year the line had appeared in the ‘non-traded savings from policy measures’ table, and a pretty sturdy new entrant it was. Savings will start in the second carbon budget at 3.0 megatonnes of CO2, rising to 9.5 mt in the third and 11.4 in the fourth budget, from 2023-2027.
A mighty impressive total of 23.9 mts saved over three carbon budgets, and certainly a ringing endorsement of what might be projected as a worthwhile target for saving.
But wait! Here come the 2012 projections, hot off the press. Clearly, Mr Happy has been replaced by Mr Grumpy when it comes to sketching in the latest updated projections. Here they are…..2013-17 budget; 1.5 mt CO2: 2018-22 budget 3.5 nt saving, and 2023 -27 4.9 mts. A not so impressive 9.9 mts overall. Well I know there aren’t targets, but downgrading the non-targets by 70% in one year seems a little harsh, bearing in mind that, as of this moment nothing has actually happened on Green Deal yet. So maybe the scribes know something that we (and Greg Barker) don’t know. No-one said it would be easy, that’s for sure.